AA

+8.5%🟢 Fundamentally supported

Alcoa Corporation · Industrials

$43.84Vol 5.02M · 4.2× normalMkt cap +$0.90Blive · 2026-10-16 ET

What happened

Move

+8.5%

Price

$43.84

Volume

5.02M

4.2× normal

Market cap

$11.57B

+$0.90B today

Why it moved

Earnings beathigh confidence

Alcoa shares rise 2% on Q3 earnings beat — finnhub-news
Alcoa Q3 Earnings Call Highlights AliGroup Deal and Cost Pressures — finnhub-news

Likely catalyst: earnings beat, 7.8pp above its sector, on 4.2× normal volume.

Verdict — was the move justified?

🟢 Fundamentally supported

Earnings beat — direction and rough magnitude are consistent with the identified fundamental catalyst.

How unusual is this move

σ score

5.7σ

vs own 20d volatility

Percentile

98th

of 1278 daily moves

Avg daily move

±2.7%

own 5y average

vs sector

+7.8%

beyond sector median

Today’s move is among the largest 2% of AA’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved +0.7% and the market +0.4%.

What happened after similar moves

69 similar up moves in AA’s 5-year history:

After 5 days

+1.8%

61% higher

After 20 days

+3.2%

67% higher

Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.

Fundamental context

V 87G 63P 57H 73Q 70

Insider activity (90d): net selling $1.35M

Valuation context

P/E (TTM)

8.4

5y median 13.5

P/E percentile

vs own 2y history

FCF yield

0.0%

Trading cheaper than 100% of its own historical valuation range.

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Pillar scores, financial statements, valuation history, news & more for AA

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