AON

+4.7%🔴 Potential overreaction

Aon plc Class A · Financial Services

$288.24Vol 925.6K · 0.8× normalMkt cap +$2.73Blive · 2026-10-15 ET

What happened

Move

+4.7%

Price

$288.24

Volume

925.6K

0.8× normal

Market cap

$61.14B

+$2.73B today

Why it moved

No clear catalyst identified

No reliable news, earnings or analyst driver was found for this move. A move this size without an obvious driver is most likely flow/positioning-driven rather than a fundamentals story.

Additional context: Aon expanded its Ukraine war risk insurance facility with EBRD support, driving an extreme 3.53 standard deviation move.

Verdict — was the move justified?

🔴 Potential overreaction

A 3.8σ move well beyond the sector with no identified fundamental or news driver — the reaction appears larger than currently visible evidence justifies. Likely flow/positioning-driven.

How unusual is this move

σ score

3.8σ

vs own 20d volatility

Percentile

99th

of 1278 daily moves

Avg daily move

±1.1%

own 5y average

vs sector

+3.5%

beyond sector median

Today’s move is among the largest 1% of AON’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved +1.1% and the market +1.1%.

What happened after similar moves

23 similar up moves in AON’s 5-year history:

After 5 days

-0.1%

48% higher

After 20 days

+1.2%

61% higher

Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.

Fundamental context

V 77G 74P 95H 52Q 76EW 32/65

Insider activity (90d): net buying $5.11M

Valuation context

P/E (TTM)

14.9

5y median 26.8

P/E percentile

vs own 5y history

FCF yield

0.1%

Trading cheaper than 99% of its own historical valuation range.

Full fundamental analysis on PreMarketPrice

Pillar scores, financial statements, valuation history, news & more for AON

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