CA
CAT
-3.4%🟢 Fundamentally supportedCaterpillar Inc. · Industrials
$772.34Vol 2.79M · 1.2× normalMkt cap −$12.43Bafter · 2026-10-13 ET
What happened
Move
-3.4%
Price
$772.34
Volume
2.79M
1.2× normal
Market cap
$355.03B
−$12.43B today
Why it moved
Analyst downgrademedium confidence
- Citigroup Maintains Buy on Caterpillar, Lowers Price Target to $950 — finnhub-news
- Caterpillar (CAT): Can Earnings Keep Growing After Dealers Stop Restocking? — finnhub-news
Possible catalyst: analyst downgrade, 4.0pp below its sector.
Verdict — was the move justified?
🟢 Fundamentally supported
Analyst downgrade — direction and rough magnitude are consistent with the identified fundamental catalyst.
How unusual is this move
σ score
1.9σ
vs own 20d volatility
Percentile
91th
of 1276 daily moves
Avg daily move
±1.4%
own 5y average
vs sector
-4.0%
beyond sector median
Today’s move is among the largest 9% of CAT’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved +0.6% and the market +0.1%.
What happened after similar moves
98 similar down moves in CAT’s 5-year history:
After 5 days
+0.9%
60% higher
After 20 days
+3.6%
61% higher
Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.
Fundamental context
V 30G 69P 85H 74Q 82EW 44/65
Insider activity (90d): net selling $23.06M
Valuation context
P/E (TTM)
33.9
5y median 17.6
P/E percentile
87%
vs own 5y history
FCF yield
0.0%
Trading richer than 87% of its own historical valuation range.
Full fundamental analysis on PreMarketPrice
Pillar scores, financial statements, valuation history, news & more for CAT