DLTR

+4.1%🔴 Potential overreaction

Dollar Tree Inc. · Consumer Cyclical

$121.01Vol 2.01M · 0.8× normalMkt cap +$0.89Bafter · 2026-10-14 ET

What happened

Move

+4.1%

Price

$121.01

Volume

2.01M

0.8× normal

Market cap

$22.71B

+$0.89B today

Why it moved

Financinglow confidence

How Private Equity Loaded Family Dollar With Debt — finnhub-news

Weak signal: financing, 4.5pp above its sector.

Verdict — was the move justified?

🔴 Potential overreaction

A 2.5σ move well beyond the sector with no identified fundamental or news driver — the reaction appears larger than currently visible evidence justifies. Likely flow/positioning-driven.

How unusual is this move

σ score

2.5σ

vs own 20d volatility

Percentile

93th

of 1276 daily moves

Avg daily move

±1.7%

own 5y average

vs sector

+4.5%

beyond sector median

Today’s move is among the largest 7% of DLTR’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved -0.5% and the market -0.6%.

What happened after similar moves

100 similar up moves in DLTR’s 5-year history:

After 5 days

+0.1%

53% higher

After 20 days

+6.4%

72% higher

Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.

Fundamental context

V 82G 20P 55H 60Q 90EW 45/65

Insider activity (90d): net selling $470.8K

Valuation context

P/E (TTM)

17.8

5y median 21.1

P/E percentile

15%

vs own 3y history

FCF yield

0.1%

Trading cheaper than 85% of its own historical valuation range.

Full fundamental analysis on PreMarketPrice

Pillar scores, financial statements, valuation history, news & more for DLTR

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