LLY

+4.1%🔴 Potential overreaction

Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare

$1214.25Vol 1.68M · 1.0× normalMkt cap +$42.55Blive · 2026-10-14 ET

What happened

Move

+4.1%

Price

$1214.25

Volume

1.68M

1.0× normal

Market cap

$1.08T

+$42.55B today

Why it moved

No clear catalyst identified

No reliable news, earnings or analyst driver was found for this move. A move this size without an obvious driver is most likely flow/positioning-driven rather than a fundamentals story.

Additional context: Viking's obesity pill advancing to Phase 3 despite competitive pressure.

Verdict — was the move justified?

🔴 Potential overreaction

A 3.0σ move well beyond the sector with no identified fundamental or news driver — the reaction appears larger than currently visible evidence justifies. Likely flow/positioning-driven.

How unusual is this move

σ score

3.0σ

vs own 20d volatility

Percentile

96th

of 1276 daily moves

Avg daily move

±1.4%

own 5y average

vs sector

+2.8%

beyond sector median

Today’s move is among the largest 4% of LLY’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved +1.3% and the market -0.9%.

What happened after similar moves

84 similar up moves in LLY’s 5-year history:

After 5 days

+0.2%

54% higher

After 20 days

+1.1%

60% higher

Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.

Fundamental context

V 40G 100P 100H 67Q 61

Insider activity (90d): net selling $15.96M

Valuation context

P/E (TTM)

38.9

5y median 52.6

P/E percentile

12%

vs own 5y history

FCF yield

0.0%

Trading cheaper than 88% of its own historical valuation range.

Full fundamental analysis on PreMarketPrice

Pillar scores, financial statements, valuation history, news & more for LLY

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