NV
NVAX
-10.6%⚪ No clear catalystNovavax Inc · Healthcare
$11.46Vol 4.80M · 2.0× normalMkt cap −$0.22Blive · 2026-10-16 ET
What happened
Move
-10.6%
Price
$11.46
Volume
4.80M
2.0× normal
Market cap
$1.89B
−$0.22B today
Why it moved
Analyst upgradelow confidence
Weak signal: analyst upgrade, 10.5pp below its sector, on 2.0× normal volume.
Verdict — was the move justified?
⚪ No clear catalyst
No reliable catalyst was identified for this move.
How unusual is this move
σ score
2.0σ
vs own 20d volatility
Percentile
93th
of 1276 daily moves
Avg daily move
±4.2%
own 5y average
vs sector
-10.5%
beyond sector median
Today’s move is among the largest 7% of NVAX’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved -0.1% and the market +0.5%.
What happened after similar moves
76 similar down moves in NVAX’s 5-year history:
After 5 days
-0.5%
43% higher
After 20 days
-5.3%
40% higher
Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.
Fundamental context
V 27G 0P 0H 28Q 15
Valuation context
P/E (TTM)
4.1
5y median 3.4
P/E percentile
71%
vs own 1y history
Valuation sits near the middle of its own historical range (71th percentile).
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