NVR

+3.8%🔴 Potential overreaction

NVR, Inc. · Industrials

$5953.84Vol 19.1K · 0.8× normalMkt cap +$0.59Blive · 2026-10-15 ET

What happened

Move

+3.8%

Price

$5953.84

Volume

19.1K

0.8× normal

Market cap

$15.87B

+$0.59B today

Why it moved

No clear catalyst identified

No reliable news, earnings or analyst driver was found for this move. A move this size without an obvious driver is most likely flow/positioning-driven rather than a fundamentals story.

Additional context: NVR rose 4.10% amid extreme statistical movement, trading 3.36 standard deviations from its 20-day mean.

Verdict — was the move justified?

🔴 Potential overreaction

A 3.2σ move well beyond the sector with no identified fundamental or news driver — the reaction appears larger than currently visible evidence justifies. Likely flow/positioning-driven.

How unusual is this move

σ score

3.2σ

vs own 20d volatility

Percentile

96th

of 1276 daily moves

Avg daily move

±1.3%

own 5y average

vs sector

+3.7%

beyond sector median

Today’s move is among the largest 4% of NVR’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved +0.2% and the market +1.2%.

What happened after similar moves

88 similar up moves in NVR’s 5-year history:

After 5 days

+0.3%

55% higher

After 20 days

+0.3%

52% higher

Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.

Fundamental context

V 75G 24P 90H 75Q 77

Insider activity (90d): net buying $405.2K

Valuation context

P/E (TTM)

13.4

5y median 15.2

P/E percentile

31%

vs own 5y history

FCF yield

0.1%

Valuation sits near the middle of its own historical range (31th percentile).

Full fundamental analysis on PreMarketPrice

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