PGR

-6.1%🟡 Supported direction, extreme size

Progressive Corporation · Financial Services

$209.32Vol 3.61M · 2.9× normalMkt cap −$7.87Blive · 2026-10-14 ET

What happened

Move

-6.1%

Price

$209.32

Volume

3.61M

2.9× normal

Market cap

$121.49B

−$7.87B today

Why it moved

Earnings releasemedium confidence

Progressive: Q3 Earnings Snapshot — finnhub-news
What To Expect From Progressive’s (PGR) Q3 Earnings — finnhub-news

Possible catalyst: earnings release, 5.1pp below its sector, on 2.9× normal volume.

Verdict — was the move justified?

🟡 Supported direction, extreme size

Earnings release supports the direction, but at 4.8σ the reaction is unusually large even for this stock — part of the move may be positioning flow on top of the news.

How unusual is this move

σ score

4.8σ

vs own 20d volatility

Percentile

99th

of 1277 daily moves

Avg daily move

±1.1%

own 5y average

vs sector

-5.1%

beyond sector median

Today’s move is among the largest 1% of PGR’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved -1.0% and the market -0.8%.

What happened after similar moves

12 similar down moves in PGR’s 5-year history:

After 5 days

+1.5%

67% higher

After 20 days

+2.4%

75% higher

Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.

Fundamental context

V 100G 70P 90H 48Q 85

Insider activity (90d): net selling $22.97M

Valuation context

P/E (TTM)

11.1

5y median 19.2

P/E percentile

11%

vs own 5y history

FCF yield

0.1%

Trading cheaper than 89% of its own historical valuation range.

Full fundamental analysis on PreMarketPrice

Pillar scores, financial statements, valuation history, news & more for PGR

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