SM
SM
+5.5%🟢 Fundamentally supportedSM Energy Company · Energy
$39.59Vol 2.76M · 0.9× normalMkt cap +$0.49Bafter · 2026-10-16 ET
What happened
Move
+5.5%
Price
$39.59
Volume
2.76M
0.9× normal
Market cap
$9.42B
+$0.49B today
Why it moved
Earnings releasemedium confidence
- Why SM Energy (SM) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again — finnhub-news
- Scotiabank Initiates Coverage On SM Energy with Sector Perform Rating, Announces Price Target of $39 — finnhub-news
Possible catalyst: earnings release, 2.4pp above its sector.
Verdict — was the move justified?
🟢 Fundamentally supported
Earnings release — direction and rough magnitude are consistent with the identified fundamental catalyst.
How unusual is this move
σ score
2.1σ
vs own 20d volatility
Percentile
91th
of 1269 daily moves
Avg daily move
±2.5%
own 5y average
vs sector
+2.4%
beyond sector median
Today’s move is among the largest 9% of SM’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved +3.2% and the market -0.3%.
What happened after similar moves
143 similar up moves in SM’s 5-year history:
After 5 days
+0.7%
52% higher
After 20 days
+0.9%
55% higher
Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.
Fundamental context
V 87G 81P 90H 53Q 59
Insider activity (90d): net selling $787.6K
Valuation context
P/E (TTM)
9.4
5y median 9.0
P/E percentile
53%
vs own 5y history
FCF yield
0.1%
Valuation sits near the middle of its own historical range (53th percentile).
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