SMCI

-9.1%🔴 Potential overreaction

Super Micro Computer, Inc. Common Stock · Technology

$35.50Vol 32.99M · 0.9× normalMkt cap −$2.35Bafter · 2026-10-14 ET

What happened

Move

-9.1%

Price

$35.50

Volume

32.99M

0.9× normal

Market cap

$23.32B

−$2.35B today

Why it moved

No clear catalyst identified

No reliable news, earnings or analyst driver was found for this move. A move this size without an obvious driver is most likely flow/positioning-driven rather than a fundamentals story.

Verdict — was the move justified?

🔴 Potential overreaction

A 2.8σ move well beyond the sector with no identified fundamental or news driver — the reaction appears larger than currently visible evidence justifies. Likely flow/positioning-driven.

How unusual is this move

σ score

2.8σ

vs own 20d volatility

Percentile

93th

of 1276 daily moves

Avg daily move

±3.7%

own 5y average

vs sector

-6.5%

beyond sector median

Today’s move is among the largest 7% of SMCI’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved -2.7% and the market -0.6%.

What happened after similar moves

76 similar down moves in SMCI’s 5-year history:

After 5 days

+0.4%

50% higher

After 20 days

+5.1%

57% higher

Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.

Fundamental context

V 47G 100P 56H 86Q 30EW 37/65

Insider activity (90d): net selling $24.44M

Valuation context

P/E (TTM)

18.8

5y median 21.8

P/E percentile

40%

vs own 5y history

FCF yield

-0.3%

Valuation sits near the middle of its own historical range (40th percentile).

Full fundamental analysis on PreMarketPrice

Pillar scores, financial statements, valuation history, news & more for SMCI

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