VS
VST
-7.3%🟢 Fundamentally supportedVistra Corp. · Utilities
$150.57Vol 4.53M · 0.8× normalMkt cap −$3.96Blive · 2026-10-14 ET
What happened
Move
-7.3%
Price
$150.57
Volume
4.53M
0.8× normal
Market cap
$50.54B
−$3.96B today
Why it moved
Earnings releasehigh confidence
- Constellation Energy (CEG) vs. VST and TLN: Can Nuclear Power and AI Demand Drive Earnings Growth? — finnhub-news
- Transcript: Vistra Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call — finnhub-news
Likely catalyst: earnings release, 7.3pp below its sector.
Verdict — was the move justified?
🟢 Fundamentally supported
Earnings release — direction and rough magnitude are consistent with the identified fundamental catalyst.
How unusual is this move
σ score
2.5σ
vs own 20d volatility
Percentile
97th
of 1275 daily moves
Avg daily move
±2.1%
own 5y average
vs sector
-7.3%
beyond sector median
Today’s move is among the largest 3% of VST’s daily moves over the last 5 years — while the sector moved +0.0% and the market -0.9%.
What happened after similar moves
43 similar down moves in VST’s 5-year history:
After 5 days
+1.3%
62% higher
After 20 days
+3.3%
52% higher
Median of same-direction moves within ±35% magnitude band. Past patterns don’t predict outcomes — context, not signal.
Fundamental context
V 56G 45P 77H 17Q 66EW 34/65
Insider activity (90d): net selling $15.45M
Valuation context
P/E (TTM)
24.6
5y median 24.2
P/E percentile
54%
vs own 4y history
FCF yield
0.0%
Valuation sits near the middle of its own historical range (54th percentile).
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